Look at a July 2005 survey, when once again fell to 1004, but did not reach 998 points:
today Investment Financial Data Limited in July 2005 was the fourth time this year (total 16 period) fund manager survey, the current investigation starts on July 8,
deadline is July 18. The survey, a total of domestic fund management companies, securities and insurance companies to invest in Management of the 102 fund managers and investment managers sent out a questionnaire
to recover the 76 respondents. Here, we work to support our fund managers to express my sincere thanks!
Issue Summary:
● slowing economic growth, interest rates dropped rapidly
fund managers are expected within 12 months of economic slowdown in China highly recognized that the growth rate will drop slightly to 78 %, that will show a slow growth accounted for 18%,
and that will maintain strong growth of only 3%. Meanwhile, the expected profits of listed companies in the second half than the first half of the 76% decline, 17% of that which will drop substantially; only 8% of the fund managers think that will slightly increase; expected to be flat 16%. to cut costs by 74% of fund managers believe that corporate earnings growth is the most important positive factor, more than 3 March survey increased by 31 percentage points; choose to increase production and raise the price of 9% and 12%. However, 71% of fund managers believe that within the next 12 months, the domestic prices of basic industrial products will fall, more than that high rise out of 50 percentage points more than the investigation in May increased 15 percent, cost pressures are expected to be eased .41% of the fund managers believe that within the next 12 months will be a slight increase in CPI, 26% selected the same, 33 % choose decline is expected to rise in value from the March high of 76% all the way down to 8%. Accordingly, the fund manager is expected to sharply raise interest rates, expected after 12 months of short-term interest rates will rise, flat, decline accounted for 25%, 58% and 18%, the net value of the expected rate hike from the March high of 95% dropped to 7%. on the expected appreciation of the RMB is still high, that possible br>
not optimistic about the outlook for corporate profits to the fund managers expected impact on the market to determine pricing levels. that the current high pricing of the domestic stock market accounted for 58%, compared with May up 5 percentage points, which select the High 5 % 26% -10%, 10% -15% select high, 16%; that the reasonably priced 31%; and that the low priced 11% more than in May increased 9 percentage points. still 86% of the fund managers believe that the current stock market in a bear market, a survey in May than a decrease of 8 percentage points; but the change is obvious that, select the mid bear market dropped significantly from 67% to 22%, choose the bear market rose from 6% late to 64%; selected 5% of the initial bull market. tradable share reform impact on the market seems to have weakened the performance of the various factors affect the stock market, the macroeconomic outlook is 50% of those surveyed considered the most critical factor ; followed by the split share structure reform implementation, accounting for 27%; selection policy efforts and the market supply and demand, respectively, 11% and 12%. In addition, the split share reform on the impact of expectations on this issue, the Fund significant differences between managers that Ling is expected to become optimistic and pessimistic were 33% and 37%, 23% said that does not affect the expected.
● pessimism remains the same, less willingness to invest for
12 months after the Chinese stock market is expected to rise significantly, 17%, a slight increase of 50%; that will fall 21% by the value of the increase from January; also expected to increase in value from January 82% of the peak period by period fell to 46%. If the next 3 months fell 10%, the proportion of people willing to buy the shares from May 64% to 58% to 50% decrease in net buying, Following the May 12-month low after another. If the next 3 months rose 10%, willing to sell the shares from 40% to 59%, while the desire to buy shares only 5% of the net from 34% sold to 54%, also hit a 12-month high. these two sets of data show that investor sentiment is more cautious than in May. Funds Holding positions maintained at 65%, 70%, 75% and 23% respectively over, 16% and 16%, less than 65% of positions accounted for 45%. 30% of the stock holdings of fund managers plan, higher than the planned reduction of 9 percentage points; plan to sell bonds and cash and 24% respectively 18%, higher than the number of people to be overweight.
● retail sales continue to be optimistic energy, consumer goods slowed
consistent with the May survey, the financial, retail, energy and automotive industry, more than 20% of the four fund managers think are undervalued, energy and retail continue to be 24% and 13% of the underestimation of the net ahead of other industries, while the values were also increased by 18 and 5 percentage points. Automotive underestimate the net value of shares to all the way up from March, this issue has turned positive; another underestimated the industry is a positive net utility, which is to be the most fund managers believe that a reasonable valuation of industrial categories. Technology and the media, as always, highest in the first two overvalued industry. judge underestimate the value from the index, the fund manager of consumer products, pharmaceutical industry, health care and the valuation of the three levels of communication become more pessimistic; of common industrial and basic materials industries Valuations are turning optimistic about the trend of .80% of the fund managers believe that the next 12 months the performance of defense-based industries will be more superior, far ahead in the cycle-sensitive industries.
2005 年 1 Lunar Capital Manager Survey Interpretation: spring just around the
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Huang Jiajian
The fund managers carried out the survey period, the market is moving from the points lower at around 100, reaching deep KLCI eight-year low. To the extreme pessimistic market sentiment, in shares inquiry, C-share market to open so bad under pressure, the stock market into a serious crisis. However, we found that fund managers significantly exceed the market's pessimistic tone, but increased confidence index
, a number of data shows that fund managers generally believe the market will soon be over the winter, spring, near the pace gradually.
◎ trends in the broader market, the prevailing view was: That 12 months after the broader market will rise in the proportion accounted for 88% rise in September, based on an increase of 8% and that only 6% decline in the original have flip over to see the empty, add multi-camp, making the fund manager The long position of absolute majority.
◎ on the stage in the market, filled with a strong Up to 94% of fund managers that is now in a bear market recognition than November survey 40% increase in the number of bear market. While living in a bear market, but 81% of fund managers believe that the end of the current bear market. From fund managers survey, suggesting that this may be a watershed year, 62% of the fund managers believe the stock market get the next 12 months rose slightly, much higher than that a substantial increase in the proportion of 26%, indicating sharply this year increase in these conditions remains.
◎ on the sale of choice, the majority of adherence to the If the stock market fell 10%, 82% of institutional investors willing to buy stocks, the survey further than the November increase of 4 percentage points, which suggests that institutional investors believe that 1200 is relatively safe point, if more by 10% to fall, most fund managers do not want to miss the Opening of the opportunity. If the stock market rose 10%, choose to sell the stock ratio of 50%, comparable with the previous period, which with the fund manager's expectations for the future: stock index may be a Then there are chase sell, even if the stock market rose 10%, still about one percent of the managers chose to recover the high bid.
◎ base the valuation on the stock, that stock is undervalued ratio increased significantly. Study concludes that the domestic stock market is overvalued, fund managers from 53% two months ago, quickly fell to 47%, the proportion that is undervalued increased substantially from 18% to 27%, of which more than 20% of that from underestimation of 1 % to 8%,
monster pro headphones, that is, underestimated the proportion increased, the rate also increased substantially underestimated.
◎ expectations for corporate profits, the optimism is expected to become mainstream. Expected decline in corporate profits next year the proportion was 32%, considerably less than 55% of the previous period,
bose headphones, on the contrary, that the rate of increase in corporate profits from 41% to 63% of the Fund managers optimistic about corporate earnings tend to, the negative impact of macro-control has been weakened.
◎ selection and species selection in the industry, the fund managers generally a We investigated its position can be discerned, technology, media, medicine and health category, utilities are fund managers that value The medicine and health classes and utilities are For the choice of bonds, in bonds, corporate bonds and convertible bonds among the three, the most popular is the fund manager convertible bonds, the fund manager over Bacheng preferred convertible bonds. Since convertible bonds have characteristics of both equity and debt, is into the attack,
Monster Headphones, retreat to the variety, access to the institutional investors favor.
occasion to fall in the stock, fund managers optimistic about the market outlook is expected to tend to the contrary, in addition to a large number of stocks a huge decline in the market, on the expectation has been enhanced. The stock market falling, not only grievances Ding Fei, also caused a chain reaction, a group of securities institutions into the edge of life and death, but the crisis is a turning point, one with the stock market exposure of deep-seated problems and solutions, and tomorrow must be a sunny day, after four-year bear market investors suffering, the preservation of the most important strength, patiently waiting the arrival of spring. Contrast these two surveys
:
2005 年 1 月 main stock index is also about the level of 1200, but fund managers optimistic on the economy more, but they are optimistic about the anti-cycle species such as medicine , communications,
Dre Beats Headphones, utilities, consumer stocks; but to the real bottom in July when the fund manager of economic pessimism in fact,
Monster Beats Headphones, up to 8 percent, and 4 into a more forecasts CPI will rise within a year; 6 into the valuation at that time partial high, and there are a lot of people even in January promising medicine, communications, utilities, consumer stocks valuations are unreliable.
Please note that this was the most outstanding representative of a group of investors, many of these people go out and do a private placement was also with the level of today's fund managers also significantly higher than a chip, at least performance guarantee is not.
my intention to criticize them is not, in fact, some people may not do better, otherwise China's fund industry will not grow out. However,
monster beats, U.S. stocks have gone two years before the bull market, while the A shares have been run in a bear market; In addition, A shares before the share reform is not the lack of big blue Dinghaishenzhen class, such as 601857,601808, these are only after the reunification, so will be subject to Hong Kong stocks fluctuations. Of course, 05 years ago, China and the world economy are not necessarily closely linked, closed is also good, when QDII / QFII has no or very small.
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