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boom of the 1830s and 1840s, the third, based on steel, machine tools and motor vehicles, which came to an end in the 1970s and the fourth, which is now taking place, based on electronics and biology. A disruptive feature of the fourth is the use of robots to replace workers in manufacturing, creating unpredictable and undesired employment effects.<br /><em>See also:</em> Kondratieff cycle; take-off <br /><em>Reference</em><br />Deane, P. (1979) The First Industrial Revolution, 2nd edn, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.<br /> Rostow, WW (1971) The Stages of Economic Growth: A non-communist manifesto, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
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logistic cycle (E3, NO)<br />A cycle in economic activity of 150-300 years' duration which, when plotted as a graph of industrial production against time, approximates to the statistical logistic curve of an expansion phase followed by a stagnation phase. The first cycle was from 1100 to 1450, the second from 1450 to 1750 and the third has not been completed.<br /><em>See also:</em> Kondratieff cycle; long wave <br /><em>Reference</em><br />Cameron, R. (1973) 'The logistics of European economic growth: a note on historical periodization', Journal of European Economic History 2: 145-58.
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