British at the end of 1,528,249,000,000,
Lacoste, as of the end of the year 5, this figure has been blown $ 180,000,000, no mistrust, if necessary perchance that China's foreign exchange reserves this year will naturally be surpassed 2 trillion.
do not meditation that 1.8 trillion yuan of foreign exchange reserves is a So now that1.8 trillion in foreign reserves, no doubt a nuclear bombard, a mini slovenly, China's reform and opening up three decades is a likely result of
Yes, this 1.8 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, foreign assets of China truly is, but internally, it becomes a central bank of the residents, businesses, non-residents, foreign debt, in other words, the central bank is administrate fund a 1.8 trillion, and are the cardinal fund holders, and holders of mediocre funds of different fund self-financing, the central bank's profit and loss risk of the fund are borne by the central bank, the revenue is from the corresponding fund holders enjoy If one day these subjects are not optimistic about China's future economy, and redemption of their own it is the currency crisis, and ensuing inflation and more vicious financial crisis.
Although China ashore China's international theorists very optimistic almost the ability to disburse, if it is planing to import and export, foreign debt, the outflow of international hot money,
Womens Lacoste Carnaby Trainers, China's foreign exchange reserves to handle with any payment crisis,
Womens Lacoste Shua Trainers, but I'm apologetic, these There is not dynamic to think these asset come in, go out to send female babies may be postponed, but did no consider China's foreign exchange reserves each daytime these surely to the capital when the nation will import this flight flood.
a simple equation is enough to certify that China's foreign exchange reserves in the balance sheet risk: At present, China's roomy M2 deposits of 40 trillion has been proficient to, there is no issued data of the M3 is distant more than M2, there are 18 trillion of family savings is mammoth , at a time a small flight of these funds, attach with the international hot money, and foreign straight investment in China 3 annuals accumulated profits, the current 1.8 trillion foreign reserve presently Huifei not smoke. This time, we favor to underestimate the ability of the central bank's foreign exchange controls, for is now the chief bank can not control international capital streams into the same swagger.
It is explicit namely the liabilities of China's foreign exchange reserves every day to eat it in the natural assets: since 2005, especially into 2008,
Lacoste Observe Strap Trainers, the Chinese yuan to appreciative, when the depreciation of the dollar, which will squeeze in two out of China's foreign exchange reserves, For sample, if a billion in July 2005 before the reform of RMB exchange rate, for 827 million yuan, if the yuan rose about 6 yuan, excluding the assets and profits during this phase, and amuse income, exchange merely earnings measured to 27%, which manner that time, more money can go for 27% of the dollar. In other words, China's foreign exchange reserves shrank along 27%.
more hazardous is that as disapproved to the foreign exchange reserves of about 4% of foreign earnings, the foreign exchange reserves, the funds corresponding to the yield in China is far more than 10%, or even 20% or more, that is, corresponding to these reserves for domestic funds, once to go out, they would surely come when the dollar for a large part of the number. Clearly, more time it takes, the bigger of China's foreign exchange reserves, China's foreign exchange reserves to shrink the more powerful.
Moreover, the current global economy appears to be very bad for China's foreign exchange reserves, global inflation soared, forcing all countries nigh the world have set foot on the rate walk cycle, especially the United States has issued a warning of inflation and interest rates implied that China held Some U.S. Treasury interest rates facing the shrinking hazard.
Do not overestimate the capacity of China's capital controls, since 2001 after joining WTO, China's unprecedented economic melt into the global economy, multinational transfer pricing, current transfers, in particular, income, trade finance, funds can be legally way channels, particularly the rigid implementation of China's current out into the wide open gate policy, in fact, the current international hot money into the source of origin, that is, the current maximum capacity of the domestic foreign exchange controls jeer.
China has no choice, since China's foreign exchange reserves can not take the initiative to repress the continued expansion of the spume, then the passive to stab the foam will not necessarily destroy a recipe, from the current situation, China should push international oil prices to homeopathy initiative to burst the foam. For China, the sooner this bubble burst, China more lively, longer if the bubble blowing, the more the price in China, or even out of control in 1998 Indonesia manner.
In truth, since 2004, China has been in the pursuance of balance of remittances, yet it namely in appreciation of the renminbi, export tariff rebate plan correction, alternatively industrial policy hijacking, China's international balance of payments has not been tamed, China's exotic commute reserves extra still apt stubborn Jueao unruly growth.
Needless to mention, pushing prices down for the profits of Chinese enterprises is definitely aggravate, whatsoever, that with China's foreign exchange reserves bigger bubble blowing the risk of loss of control compared to the last, but it is trifling. Obviously, years of sluggish.
high oil prices alteration the hot money than the expected appreciation of the renminbi efficacious change: high oil prices, high imports, the trade surplus or shortage reduced oppression of RMB appreciation to dwindle international capacity to pay less, naturally turned to the international hot money. In fact, the scale of trade and current account surplus to alteration the instruction of international hot money each time the fuse.
of way, the external character of high oil prices, is too obvious, is risky in the Southeast Asian economy is likely in corner to be kick by a financial crisis, soaring oil prices and edible prices proceed their current-account surplus will eat a wash, thus mow off the sources of international payments in these countries, alarms of international hot money to flee. Although the explosion of the Vietnam crisis is just
For China, a country in Southeast Asia arise at the peak of the currency devaluation, China is immune, it is clear that a small country's money devaluation can not move the economy, but the depreciation of these small countries will undermine the export of other small countries, to overturn a large domino, and when several countries together, and this will certainly posture a threat to China's exports to move the sources of China's international payments, but for China, it is not necessarily a bad object, it can be more expedited in the assassination breaking foreign exchange reserves are more bigger and bigger bubbles.
United States - this from the dividends of globalization over the elapse two years, blowing a big world's largest economy, will bid goodbye to his hegemony bubbles quickly, notwithstanding the visible hereafter, no country can replace her. China move prices higher, not only will it directly move up inflation, while the flight of hot money in Asia, will be a direct outcome of money in U.S. Treasury bonds in these countries, especially China,
Buy Lacoste Trainers, which has long-term U.S. interest rates may be pushed to the unexpectedly high , and the honor crisis may trigger a second,
Womens Lacoste Trainers New, more U.S. fiscal creations may not lucky last time to escape, it will then speedily fall.
this point is assorted from the financial crisis of 1997-1998, when the financial policy of the United States and Asia, execute their duties, and since 2001, this circular of economic wheel, the whole of Asia's economy and financial policies are purchased by foreign exchange reserves U.S. Treasury bonds, which the United States tied to monetary policy, a boom, a detriment of all losses.
course, for China, this is not a bad thing. Either from the financial situation, or household savings, corporate savings, China on the capacity of the economic crisis stronger than other countries, although China may be lost, but not the same as 1998, out of control in Indonesia, especially U.S. financial institutions breakdown, and the Asian
However, if China still continued to the present economic policy, it is clear that international capital will remain the same as river carp chasing appreciation of the yuan, foreign exchange savings is still distending rapidly as the balloon-like, it is definite that, once the RMB one-off appreciation and the sharp appreciation of the time, the international capital, and servant capital flight time.
reality is so marble, the present global economy is like a conquer situation, more likely, to watch who is out. But from the moment, as China, crude fuel costs, is to grab the initiative in the global economic the best arms, at fewest the best self-defense weapon.
Note: This article characterize the views of the founder.