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73450 2009 年 01 月 15 日 02:17 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Personal Diary
2009 A share of the investment strategy since 2005

there a big bull stock index, the index climbed to the highest point of 6124, we are very optimistic about the market in the development of the situation, the misconception that stock will continue on to 8000 when the upward trend of the market came to an end. Appeared in 2008, a huge range of adjustment, adjust the deep end of beyond most people's imagination. Even after substantial adjustments in 2008, however, to adjust the index through the year to the end of the market adjustment process, should be mission impossible. Due to the current U.S. subprime mortgage crisis impact gradually appear, from the second half of 2008, domestic economic developments have encountered unprecedented difficulties. Late in the shares of reform need to address the case of many problems, but also by the real economy impact of adverse situations, it is estimated will stock index in 2009 is to maintain the process of weak shocks. To change the pattern of the overall operation of the securities market, re-to

a macro analysis of surface
First, in 2005, is given through non-tradable shareholders to resolve on the price of the equity division of the problem, I can say that the end of 2007 have largely completed the a major historic task, but at that time the share reform program of the design process, and also shed some sequelae of share reform, which requires the market to resolve. After due consideration is given to the original non-tradable non-access to the circulation of the size of the weight of the lifting of the ban means that the size of non-profits in the circulation in the secondary market, for this flow situation, if 2008 is According to statistics, the full year 2009 will mark the lifting of the ban 687 189 000 000 shares traded shares, with 162.228 billion shares in 2008 compared to 3.23 times the scale. From the market point of view, lifting the full year 2009 total market capitalization listed as 3.462015 trillion yuan, up to 3.647344 trillion yuan in 2010. Taking into account the share reform of listed flow of restricted shares in 2011 draw to a close in 2010, will no doubt be the highest market value of shares one year ban. The share reform of 2008 as the main force of shares is different from selling shares in 2009 years into the starting lifted the main stock, and its total up to 464.362 billion shares; In addition, the share reform lifted shares 204 578 000 000 shares, issuance of restricted shares to 13,226,000,000 shares . Can be seen that the climax of lifting the ban will be in 2009 and 2010, the arrival of the market formed by the psychological pressure will be very large, and whether the market has sufficient funds to sell shares to bear part of the lifting of the ban will be many investment who need to consider.
in the country by the end of the state-owned assets supervision and administration of the meeting, the SASAC Director Li Rongrong clear that collaboration is working with the Commission and other departments, state-owned shareholders of listed companies to establish the dynamic monitoring system, and asked the central enterprises of shares of listed companies after the lift not only can not reduction, but also own stock holdings. SASAC Director Li Rongrong said, has been building dynamic, real-time equity transfer supervision of listed companies believe that the central enterprises,gucci sunglasses, will conscientiously perform their duties, at such times, reduction of central enterprises will not be major shareholders,gucci outlet, there is no need for reduction, should help We are now entering the stock market stability as soon as possible with health. I asked not to be underweight in 2009, not only underweight, but also overweight, and this is my request. Li Rongrong also said the major shareholder of the central enterprises to implement dynamic testing is to ensure that enterprises held by the orderly transfer of shares of listed companies and major asset restructuring operation code of conduct. The next step in the regulatory focus will turn to transfer state-owned shares of listed companies, state-owned shareholders of listed companies improve the behavior management system approach. The data from the China Galaxy Securities, in 2009 lifted the central enterprises holding shares in companies about 2.92 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.6%. If the central enterprises to sell shares of listed companies in the Ming period after the lift is not underweight, it will ease the pressure on the stock market make a significant contribution to the capital side. But even the remaining 11% of the lifting of the ban will be a tremendous impact on the market can be said that no reduction of central enterprises the market in some of the impact of the buffer force, but the market for the lifting of the ban caused by psychological stress is far greater than is actually less because support which led to stock price volatility.
Second, the subprime crisis negative impact on the economy gradually. Since 2008, China's economic difficulties and challenges continue, basically in the As Premier Wen Jiabao 20 leading cadres at provincial and ministerial level Seminar of his report said,
present, the international trend of economic deterioration may also be further intensified. Began to show last year in April since the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis from a single stock market subprime mortgages spread to the money market and capital market. Governments adopted a series of rescue measures really effective, the market remains to be seen. With Lehman Brothers has filed for bankruptcy, Bank of America announced the acquisition of Merrill Lynch, American International Group is close to bankruptcy by the government to take over ... ... the U.S. financial industry into a new round of turmoil, the subprime crisis is developing in depth, on the other effects are more evident.
2008 complex and changing international economic situation since the international financial turmoil, the global economy is slowing down markedly. The second quarter, the U.S., EU and Japan economies, the growth rate of the three were only 3.3%, 1.6% and -0.7%. And the global financial crisis, the transfer to the real economy, many companies are in the world, large-scale layoffs or cuts, lay-off, only to tighten the waistband through the crisis, the economic crisis is not resolved in the short term, while the GDP, as exports of China a large proportion will be directly affected, although the state to invest trillions of investment security and stability, but the final effect is still unknown, but China's economic dependence on foreign trade as high as 60%. By external demand and other factors, China's exports growth rate since August last year, was slowing down trend. January-August 2008, China's exports grew 22.4%, an increase over last year, down 5.3 percentage points over the same period, and in the fourth quarter continued to show a downward trend, the domestic foreign exchange reserves fell to 1.8 trillion. China's economy in the external environment, radical poly deteriorating, it is estimated will not be too optimistic.
again, from the domestic economic situation, China has encountered unprecedented difficulties in the economy. The traditional pattern of domestic demand, external demand driven completely meet the challenges, to a significant role in boosting and expanding domestic demand, mainly in the areas of investment in infrastructure and focused on automotive and real estate, driven by the actual consumption is not particularly obvious, and thus continue to pursue high investment to have a limited amount. China Traditional savings with loving people, the economy continues to climb in recent years, the savings amount and therefore gone up, but in the case of the economy affected the estimated consumption will be taken for tighter policy, rather than into consumer savings , and that this brings for the growth of domestic difficulties. The current economic downturn seems to be able to stop China's 'sole remedy' is the real estate industry. Although a number of recently introduced the New Deal, to support the real estate industry, but the final effect of the circumstances, there is no apparent, although to a certain extent, the decline slowed during the real estate industry, but ultimately could not prevent a further decline in real estate prices trend, if passed, the crisis in the real estate industry appears localized, then related to more than 50 industries involved will have a more significant impact, which will make the overall economic development of resistance are important. Thus the second half of the 2008 decline in domestic economic growth trend has been the case, estimated that the economic situation in 2009 will be more not optimistic.
Also, the profitability of listed companies decreased. disclosure of listed companies into the intense period of annual notice. According to statistics, Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies a total of 536 issued a notice of 2008 annual results. which , 237 full-year results of the company is expected to decline or loss, accounting for almost half the total number of listed companies results notice. 125 companies of which net profit is expected to decline this year, 112 companies are expected to a certain degree of loss. which, long the source Electricity (000966) notice of a loss this year for the first time, losses of about 640 million yuan, ranked 112 listed company expects first loss. followed Zinc Industry (000751) to report losses, expected full-year loss 4.9 billion, Yunengkonggu (001,896) estimated loss of 390 million yuan or so. In addition, there are 26 listed companies in the amount of expected full-year loss more than 50 million yuan. from the Pre-losing and the proportion of pre-cut situation, has been significantly more than semi-annual report, indicating a marked decline in the second half performance of listed companies. Since 2009,gucci shoes, macro-economic downturn is a foregone conclusion, performance of listed companies in 2009 will be zero growth in the brink, the performance trends of the market decline will form a large containment role.
Finally, after the share reform, the market valuation of the system will be a fundamental change in the size of the non-flow has not been fully before the market system will also be a need to establish the process of digestion. institutional funds from the market situation, the original position of absolute dominance of the funds have been followed by retreat home, and the original large non-profit distribution rights in the stock price will then have more say in pricing. Thus, although the market after the big 2008 adjustments, but the market prices of individual stock price positioning and the establishment of central nervous system takes time to complete.
Second, from a technical analysis:
first theoretical analysis of the form: The Shanghai Composite Index, for example,gucci sale, stock index since 2007 16 October 6124 has become increasingly high points, the index followed a sharp downward adjustment of the Zhu Bo, now, still at large after the downlink channel formed inside, and failed to drive out the downside of this channel , indicating the market is still the first round of the major adjustment in the process of running, but judging from the speed of downlink has been slowing, the market adjustments that have gradually entered into the end of the stage, to a substantial downward can already rule out the possibility completely. and the last two months there have been very significant volume amplification, indicating the differences between the market has begun to increase in both long and short into battle with a certain force, which is the index in the current rate so far is hard for deep down is another important reason of.
to the recent trend of view, see index from the low point after 1664, the market produced a wave of consolidation after bottoming rally the more obvious, but the formation of a flat-type The shock box movements, basically point at 1800 -2100 repeated shocks between the start box. If the stock index down box beneath the consolidation, the market there will be a form of altitude, and this adjustment will will make the stock down again approaching pre-low or modest hit a new low. from the Shenzhen Component Index of the situation,gucci heels, the stock index in the formation of a more obvious form of double top neckline bit and have been below the support trend adjustment has been formed. stock index down further explore the support of the request. The Shenzhen Component Index tend to have a guiding role in the Shenzhen Component Index are not able to complete the task before the bottom, Shanghai will have greater difficulty complete the bottom.
with the wave theory: If the broader market adjusted to 1664 points in the A wave has completed the adjustment of the 5 waves, then the current rebound in stock arising from B will be the largest wave of backlash. childhood form of view, after a three-wave after the rally, there are already signs of the initial bounce in place, followed by the adjustment will be X waves appear only after a large wave B C wave rally. is another line from the point of view on the stock market index is basically subject to 5 weeks average back pressure, showing a continuous process of bottom, and the current index is still at large A wave of the adjustment process. A wave can be considered to extend in a 5 wave adjustment process, judging from the wave-type , the current wave will be the final extension of 5 waves a small 5 wave adjustment; the other indexes are in the current wave of 5 large A wave correction.'s recent rebound can only be extended wave 5 wave rally or 4 small 4 waves bounce process. If you think that the current rebound in the broader market is 4 wave process, the adjustment will appear 5 waves, then the adjustment will be and a wave of such adjustments are basically similar, then the target will be adjusted index 2100 points X [1 - (6124-4772) / 6124] = 1636 points; and if the extension is currently in the final 5 wave a small 5 wave adjustment process, then the situation from the point of view on the line, adjust the index from 6124 points to 4772 points to belong to the first wave of adjustments 1; from 5522 points to 2990 points of adjustment is the adjustment of wave 3; from the start point of the adjustment of 3786 is the extension of wave 5 is the adjustment process. The extension of wave 5 waves can be divided into 3786 points to 2566 points since the adjustment is a small 5 wave 1 wave adjustment; from 2952 points to 1664 points of adjustment is 5 waves are small 3 wave of the adjustment process; since 2100, after the start of the adjustment points process belongs to the small 5 wave 5 wave adjustment process. in accordance with the golden ratio calculation, if the 2566-point adjustment is 0.382 bit position, then the adjustment of the target location index in 2566 - [1 - (3786 -2566) / 3786X1 .618] = 1336 points; if the location of the point in 2100, the position of 0.618, then the adjustment of the target location index will be 2100 - [1 - (3786-2100) / 3786X0.618] = 1522 points; and the adjustment to large range of circumstances, because the adjustment from the 3786 spots are to extend the adjustment of 5 waves, then from 6124 points to 3786 points to adjust the position of the location should be 0.382 to adjust the target position is 3786-- [1 - (6124-3786 ) / 6124X1.618] = 1395 points. which sum up the situation, the index will be found in the 1300-1600 range goal of this adjustment.
according to wave theory, Wave B is the jagged wave of adjustment, and the three wave structure of the triangular wave A means to adjust the platform or waves. , or even three times, especially in the first wave did not reach the serrated adjustment when the normal target. In these cases, each sawtooth wave will be inserted to adjust the These structures are similar to promote the extension of wave wave. waves rebound, which may be the best investment opportunities next year.
Third, investment strategy
foregoing analysis, the indexes will appear in 2009, the trend swings bottom bounce, although volatility may be the focus of slightly down, but the market will rebound because of the technical requirements of the stage presence of a number of opportunities arising, and some stocks a huge range of adjustment in the after will also enter into the stage of the value of the investment at a reasonable price, the value will be long-term investment market emerged slowly, but in the early stages of market transition, this concept also takes a long time to cultivate and fixed. market speculation has still occupied a major position relative to the stock trading on the the following aspects:
First, the market have a big rebound in the process of B wave of speculative operations accordingly. the index after a further test a low stage, the estimate given in the first half proved the second half of the initial stage to the market the bottom of the index will have staged a rebound after the process, especially if the stock index to reach 1,500 points below the position, then investors should pay full attention to the large markets of the level of rebound opportunities, in these, a number of oversold the cap, lower the requirements will be under a technical rebound, there will be an incredible double or even several times the gains investors the opportunity for such speculation should not give up.
the second is more than a year substantial adjustment, the stock's share price has been down there a more substantial, because the performance of many cyclical industry downturn will result in the case of low-cost high price-earnings ratio, to provide investors with opportunities for some long-term intervention; part of the price of individual stocks After adjustment led to a substantial dividend rate of return will exceed the long-term government bonds interest rates, the value of this investment will also provide better conditions, as well as part of the growth of the industry is still able to resist the adverse effects of the financial crisis, bring to the market value of investment opportunities. the focus can be concerned about such as new energy, environmental protection, and so new industry.
Third, some conceptual opportunities for speculation. such as the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai could lead to local units will stage Shanghai the stock market; upcoming GEM and stock index futures which also appears to promote related industries rally stage; upcoming margin stocks brokerages will also influence the formation of stimulating. And the key support of national policies in agriculture, environmental protection, new energy, and so are likely to be due to the introduction of policies which led to emergence stage of the stock market.
whole,gucci watches, the 2009 valuation of the market system is still in the establishment of the new process, the opportunity to operate more The local market is still the stage