If MLB had secured the cooperation of players from the start, these statisticians would have a better data set to work with. Most of the players in the Mitchell report were veterans trying to recover from injuries or hang on. There didn’t seem to be many young players using steroids to get bigger and make the majors. That might make a huge impact on the results here. It’s also not clear that they separated steroid use from HGH use, which I would think would make a huge difference.
Sabernomics points to an article in Saturday’s New York Times in which two professor of statistics examine the data surrounding the players in the Mitchell report. On average, they find no gain from the alleged use of PEDs:
It is possible (but not addressable by these data) that one effect of drugs is to help players compensate for decline as they age, and thus to extend their careers. But there is no evidence in these data for performance enhancement above previous levels.
More study of this question would be valuable. But the results here are intriguing,
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That might,
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